This prediction is trending in the right direction so far. A basket of our most-favored sectors is up 2.5 percent, while a basket of our least-favored is trailing at 0.5 percent as of the end of last week.3 Assuming economic growth continues to improve, we think this prediction will remain in the correct column.

Prediction 10

Republicans lose the House, retain the Senate and further distance themselves from President Trump.

Political futures are about as volatile as equity markets, and five months can be a lifetime for politics. Absent a significant shift in the political landscape, however, we expect Democrats will be able to take the House of Representatives in November, although the Senate is less likely to see a leadership change. Many Republicans have been distancing themselves from the president, with the latest divide coming from President Trump’s immigration policies.

Robert C. Doll is senior portfolio manager and chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management.

 

1 Source: Source: Commerce Department

2 Source: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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