Moving beyond the investment mentality.
A child, however, who had no important job and could
only see things as his eyes showed them to him, went up to the
carriage. "The Emperor is naked," he said. ... Everyone cried: "The boy
is right! The Emperor is naked!" The Emperor realized that the
people were right but could not admit to that.
- Hans Christian Anderson
When clients are promised consistently superior, above-market returns by their financial advisors, are these promises as shallow and invisible as the clothes "weaved" by the tailors in the Hans Christian Anderson fable? Are they preying on the greed felt by many investors? If so, how long before the townspeople (average investors) discover that the emperor is naked? In addition, what will they do about it?
What Our Clients Are Looking For
Those of you who attended the FPA Retreat in
Missouri in 2004 were privileged to witness one of the most motivating
sessions I have ever attended. Videotaped interviews of four
clients of financial planners were presented. They each spoke of how
important their relationship was with their planner and what it had
meant to them. They recounted how the quality of their lives had
improved. Some of the phrases and words they used to describe their
experiences were "peace of mind," "trust," "friendship," "caring,"
"concern for our needs," "availability" and "competence." One could not
help but notice two things that all of these clients had in common:
they treasured the relationship they had with their planners and not
one of them mentioned investments. I do not mean to imply that
investing our client's money is something to be taken lightly or
ignored. But to represent that the main reason people hire us and
retain our services is to obtain superior investment results may
diminish what we really do for our clients.
Constructing Portfolios
One of the most important things we do for our
clients is to construct portfolios that are designed to meet their
unique individual goals. It is not the purpose of this article to get
into the technicalities of constructing investment strategies. Enough
been written on that subject. We all know that the basic purpose of any
system is to construct portfolios that represent the highest
probability of achieving success for your client. We define success as
meeting goals, not beating markets.
Whether you use mutual funds, individual stocks, separate accounts or
other vehicles, designing portfolios for your clients should contain
two very important components. First, the expected returns, with some
margins for error, need to have a high probability of your clients
achieving their long- and short-term goals. Second, the strategy must
be constructed in a way that it will not cause your clients to abandon
the policy when markets are not doing well. Communicating realistic
expectations about the returns and volatility will be vital.
Since I believe that achieving above-market returns
is something that cannot be consistently delivered to clients, I tell
them that. Moreover, as financial life planners, we do not need
to "beat the market" to provide value to our clients. And I'm talking
about value for their investments, in addition to all of the other
things we do for our clients.
What Is Your Alpha?
Dalbar Inc.'s 2003 update to its ongoing study, the
Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB), showed that
investors continue to chase investment returns to the detriment of
their pocket books. Most likely motivated by fear and greed, investors
pour money into equity funds on market upswings and are quick to sell
on downturns. Not surprisingly, most investors are unable to time the
market and are left with equity fund returns lower than inflation.
According to the Dalbar study, the average equity investor earned a
paltry 2.57% annually, compared to inflation of 3.14%, while the S
& P 500 index earned 12.22% annually for the 19 years studied
(1984-2002).
So, why do so many financial advisors believe and
communicate to their clients that getting returns that are superior to
the market is the primary value they bring to the relationship? Dalbar
has demonstrated that, when left on their own, average investors got
returns that were almost 8.5% lower than the market.
As advisors, you do not need to beat the S&P to
deliver value to your clients. You provide discipline. You see to it
that they don't overreact to market swings. You stop them from doing
the things that average investors do that cause them to get returns
that are 8.5% below the market. However, many advisors I talk to
diminish the importance of this discipline, and judge themselves on
their ability to beat some index. They fear that clients will not pay
their fees if they don't do so. They must provide "alpha." What is
alpha for financial life planners and their clients? We all know the
technical definition of the term, but I would define it differently for
my clients.
First, if we look at what we do quantitatively, the
return we provide should be better on a risk-adjusted basis than what
they would have gotten if left on their own-not a return that is above
some arbitrary index. That is very difficult to measure because we have
no way of knowing what their results would have been had they not
engaged our services. However, Dalbar has certainly provided us with a
clue of how well the average do-it-yourself investor does. In fact, if
the return of the equity portion of the portfolios you managed for the
period studied by Dalbar were 2% below the S&P, you would have
benefited the average investor by more than 6%. That may be your alpha
in percentage terms.
However, if we stray from the technical definition
of alpha and define it as "value we provide for our clients," then the
term takes on a much broader meaning and defines who we are as
financial planners and what we do for our clients. Alpha, if we insist
on a quantitative measure, could be reaching or exceeding the client's
financial goals. If a client needs to obtain a return of 6% to reach
every financial goal she has in life, and your portfolio returns 6.5%,
have you not provided alpha? How about the clients who use their time
in pursuits that they value and enjoy, rather than agonizing about
their portfolio? Is that not alpha? Is peace of mind alpha?
One of our clients managed his own portfolio for years (and did a good
job), but hired us so he could devote more time to his practice and
family. During the bear market of 2000-2003, he called to tell us how
happy he was that we were the ones that needed to make the tough
decisions about his investments and not him. That was his alpha.
Beating the S&P 500? Let the money managers live or die with that
bogey. Your "alpha" is the peace of mind your clients experience
because of the discipline you bring to the investment management
process.
What Is Risk?
We believe that many advisors, and certainly most
clients, confuse risk and volatility. To us, the greatest risk for our
clients is to discover that they do not have enough assets to achieve
their most important goals in life. Reaching the age of 85 and
discovering that you have outlived the portfolio you designed 20 years
earlier is, by far, the riskiest strategy that one could ever devise.
An investor may believe that a portfolio with 100 % of assets invested
in intermediate bonds may be risk-averse, but it will have no
probability of succeeding if that person needs to experience a return
of 5% over inflation to maintain his lifestyle for the long run. If we
define risk as "running out of money before you run out of life," it is
our duty to point out that a strategy that appears to be conservative
may be the most risky.
Recently a new client who was retired told us that
he wanted little or no volatility from his investments. His portfolio
was with a major brokerage firm and his broker had followed his
client's instructions and constructed a portfolio of bonds of various
maturities and no equities. . The client told us that he did not want
any of his money invested in stocks because he could not handle the
"risk" (of course, he meant volatility). Our long-term
projections demonstrated that he was on target to run out of money in
12 years. We asked him if this was a risk he was willing to take, or
would he be willing to accept some fluctuations and years when the
portfolio lost money in order to significantly increase his chances for
success.
His broker had taken the easy way and, in spite of
the fact that he was withdrawing an unsustainable amount from a
portfolio invested 100% in bonds, never bothered to tell the client. We
did. The result was a balanced portfolio of 50% equities and 50% fixed
income. Will he fret over fluctuations? In the short run, probably.
Nevertheless, as financial life planners it is our duty to help our
clients achieve their goals. When faced with the prospect of either
accepting more volatility or changing their goals, my experience is
that clients always choose to accept portfolio fluctuation as a price
they need to pay for getting what the want out of life. In my
opinion, financial advisors place too much emphasis on "risk tolerance"
when portfolios are being designed for clients, and in many cases
sacrifice the long-term financial welfare of their clients.
We all know "The Serenity Prayer": "Grant me
the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to
change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference." Let us
not fool our clients and ourselves by making claims that rival those
made by the tailors in the Anderson story. We do enough good without
having to claim more than we can deliver.
Roy Diliberto is chairman and chief
executive officer of RTD Financial Advisors Inc. A former chairman of
the Financial Planning Association, he is a nationally recognized
financial advisor.