Focused fund managers pick their best and brightest ideas.
They may go out on a limb, and they don't always get
it right. But one thing you have to say about managers of focused
funds-they aren't afraid to take a stand.
At a time when the average equity mutual fund owns
over 100 stocks, and many index funds and exchange-traded funds spread
their bets around even more, fund managers who run concentrated
portfolios offer a refreshing departure from the increasingly popular
practice of far-reaching, benchmark-centric investing. They are usually
benchmark-blind in their investment strategies and, for better or
worse, their fund's performance shows it. They are stock pickers in the
truest sense of the phrase.
The ones who get it right stand apart from the pack.
Bill Nygren of Oakmark Select, Kenneth Heebner of CGM Focus and Tom
Marsico of Marsico Focus are a few of the more recognizable fund
managers who run concentrated portfolios. Others, such as the trio of
managers who run the Fairholme Fund or Alex Motola of Thornburg Core
Growth Fund, have lower profiles but commendable track records. And
then there's Warren E. Buffett, whose legions of fans have dubbed him
the unofficial king of concentrated value investing.
Nygren says his approach gives shareholders their
money's worth, and his fund owns just 19 stocks "out of respect for how
strong a competitor index funds are. They're available to the investor
at almost no cost. If a manager is going to charge a fee, I believe he
needs to provide something very different from an index." Alex Motola
of Thornburg, whose fund owns 35 stocks, concurs. "We're stock pickers,
and we don't want to dilute the value in that. We want to be intimate
with every name in the portfolio."
Although concentrated funds still represent a small
corner of the market, the allure of the superstar stock picker hasn't
been lost on the fund industry. During the late 1990s, when a small
group of big companies accounted for a large chunk of the market's
gains, fund companies churned out dozens of focus funds. Today, 361
U.S. stock funds and 27 international stock funds own between ten and
40 stocks, according to Morningstar.
To capitalize on the appeal of this approach, AIG
SunAmerica recently launched a family of seven style-specific focused
funds, each containing 30 stock picks from three different managers. In
summarizing the attraction of focused investing in today's market, the
firm's promotional literature notes, "Stock pickers are critical during
volatile markets when company fundamentals are the distinguishing
feature among winning and losing stocks." In other words, when the tide
isn't lifting all boats, you need to jump into the right ones.
One problem with jumping into a focused fund is that
they may be more or less "focused" than they appear. There is no
official rule about how many stocks a fund can own and still bear the
label "focus" or "select." Some have only 15 or 20 stocks and keep
one-third to one-half of their assets in their two top names. Many
extend the definition a bit with 30 or 40 stocks, while a number have
80 or more holdings. And, judging by the number of stocks in their
portfolios, it appears that a sizable number of focused investing
practitioners prefer to keep a foot in the diversification door. Lower
the maximum cutoff to 30 stocks, and the ranks of focused domestic
stock funds in Morningstar's universe falls to 171, while the number of
international funds drops to just eight. To add to the confusion, the
names of some of the most concentrated funds, such as those offered by
Longleaf Partners or CGM, offer little hint of their decisive nature.
What Focused Fund
Managers Are Focusing On
Regardless of how they define "focused," funds with
concentrated portfolios usually have more on the table with each
position than their more diversified competitors. That means returns
from a few stocks, particularly top holdings, can turbocharge
performance in either direction. Some of the funds underperform their
peers spectacularly, while others have compiled admirable long-term
track records.
William Nygren, the long-time manager of Oakmark
Select, falls into the latter group. His largest holding, Washington
Mutual, accounts for 15% of assets. An avowed contrarian, Nygren likes
to own companies whose stocks sell at a discount to private value, and
that have growing businesses. "The S&P 500 companies will likely
grow earnings at an average rate of 5% to 6% over the next year or so,
and the index has a dividend yield of about 2%. So we want companies
that have a combination of earnings growth and dividend yield of at
least 7%," he says.
Washington Mutual, the country's largest savings and
loan, sells for just ten times next year's earnings, has a dividend
yield of nearly 5%, and has increased its dividend every quarter for
the last seven years. "Investors overreact to swings in the mortgage
business but undervalue the retail banking franchise," he says. The
fund's second largest holding, Yum! Brands, is the company behind
several well-known fast food franchises, including Pizza Hut, Taco Bell
and Kentucky Fried Chicken. Although the stock sells at a slight
premium to the market, Nygren believes the company's strong presence in
China will help it realize earnings growth in the range of 10%.
With about 35 stocks in its portfolio, Thornburg
Core Growth Fund's Alex Motola spreads his bets a bit more than Nygren.
Each holding, which spans the range of market capitalizations,
typically accounts for 1.5% to 5% of assets.
Motola categorizes companies as growth industry
leaders, consistent growth and emerging growth. Growth industry leaders
are fast-growing companies that appear to have proprietary advantages
in their industry segments, and their stocks generally sell at premium
values. The fund's second largest holding, search engine Google, falls
into that category. "Analysts chronically underestimate the earning
power of this company," he says. "But it is one of the few large-cap
companies that's generating 50% top-line growth. Its valuation is in
line with peers such as Yahoo!, but its growth potential is much
better."
Consistent growers generally sell at premium
valuations and tend to show steady revenue and earnings growth. In this
category, he likes Johnson & Johnson because "it could lose a small
country as a client and that wouldn't have an impact on its ability to
deliver."
The health care giant also has less exposure to
patent expiration issues than its competitors. IMAX Corporation is an
emerging grower involved in the design and installation of large-format
theaters. While the company has been around since 1967, its technology
has only recently begun to move from museums and science centers to
commercial multiplexes. A lower-cost theater option for multiplex
operators, combined with enhanced technologies that allow for
inexpensive conversion of traditional movies into IMAX format, should
lead to further theater orders in the U.S. and abroad.
Rob Lyon, who runs the ICAP International Fund, says
his firm "defaulted into" concentrated investing. "We began putting
European ADRs into our domestic portfolios, and eventually there were
so many of them that we migrated them into a separate international
portfolio," he explains. Today, the fund owns about 35 ADRs and foreign
stocks of medium and large companies in Europe and Asia.
Lyon says that international markets, on average,
"offer more growth at a lower price-earnings ratio than the United
States. And the interest-rate cycle is not as advanced as it is here."
The fund limited its investments to established European markets until
May 2005, when Lyon's conviction that the Japanese economy was finally
turning the corner prompted him to begin moving into Asia.
Mitsubishi, one of the fund's largest holdings, has
also been its best performing stock this year. Although most people
know it as an electronics company, Mitsubishi is also a back-door play
on raw materials prices because of its hefty stake in mining companies,
says Lyon. "It's a great way to take advantage of rising commodity
prices, and it's more diversified than a mining company," he says.
"Profits have doubled over the last year and the stock is up 50% in
2005, but it's still priced at just ten times earnings."
Despite its name, the $100-million Auxier Focus
Fund, run by Jeff Auxier, owns about 100 securities. But he points out
that most of those are small tracking positions, and the lion's share
of assets are in the fund's top 30 holdings. "The focus," he says, "is
usually around a theme."
Right now, the theme Auxier likes is insurance, and
he added to his positions in companies like St. Paul Travelers and
Marsh & McLennan soon after the fall hurricanes slammed stocks of
property and casualty insurers. "In this industry, catastrophe takes
out capacity," he says. "Some insurers will go out of business, but
those that remain will have increased pricing power and will raise
premiums." Although that cycle could take years to play out, Auxier is
willing to wait. "Most of Wall Street is focused on the next three
months," says Auxier, a former Smith Barney broker who owns a working
farm outside of Portland, Ore. "I'm looking at the next three
years."