An 87-year-old wealth manager started as an inventor, then managed investments.
Some people love a perplexing problem. Then there is
James Kalil, who takes such delight in solving a good head-scratcher
that he makes careers out of them.
During World War II, for example, U.S. convoys
traveling across the Atlantic were menaced by German magnetized mines.
Kalil was part of a U.S. Navy engineering unit that tackled the problem
by demagnetizing naval ships. After the war, he was a member of a
research team at Los Alamos, N.M., that was responsible for designing a
smaller atomic bomb.
A few years later, after completing his doctorate
degree in chemical engineering, he embarked on a career with DuPont. He
worked in the company's labs for 28 years, developing new formulas and
manufacturing methods related to the synthesis of rubbers and other
materials.
In 1980, Kalil took an early retirement. But it
wasn't for a life of golfing and fishing. Instead, he was ready to
embark on a new career as an investment manager-an area that he felt
dovetailed perfectly with engineering research. "All I wanted was
something interesting to do. Making a lot of money was not my
objective," says Kalil, who recently celebrated his 87th birthday.
"I did it almost like my inventions at DuPont.
Instead of doing research in the lab, I was doing research on
investments," he continues. "It all involves numbers. You are doing
analysis in both cases and coming to conclusions."
His career as an investor, it turns out, has lasted
nearly as long as his lab days at DuPont. Kalil is the co-founder of
Affinity Wealth Management in Wilmington, Del., which was formerly
known as Compu-Val Investment Inc. The firm-whose day-to-day operations
are now run by Kalil's son, Donald-has about 650 clients and $240
million under management, with a healthy core of long-time clients who
have stuck with Kalil since the firm's beginning.
For these clients, the long association with Kalil
has taken them on a journey that is some respects extraordinary. Many
of them entrusted their life savings with Kalil at a time when he was
transforming himself from a chemical engineer into a professional
investment manager. He actually began investing as a sideline in the
early 1970s, mostly for friends and family. Kalil embraced value
investing in those early years, becoming a devoted disciple of
investment guru Benjamin Graham. Each day, Kalil would spend hours
pouring through the pages of Value Line, carefully picking out solid
but undervalued companies.
Kalil, who worked with a partner at the time, lost
30% in his first five months-a showing that prompted even Kalil's
brother to pull his money out of the firm. But things quickly started
to click. Using the analytical skills that he put to use in DuPont's
labs, Kalil was netting gains of 30% a year in his first ten years of
business. Local brokers soon took notice of Kalil's performance and
began steering clients his way. The national spotlight came next, with
feature stories in Money magazine and other publications.
The firm's standout performance continued into the
late 1980s and early '90s, as did the inflow of new cash and accounts.
By 1989, Kalil was treating his entire office to a Caribbean cruise in
celebration of the firm's assets under management passing the $100
million mark. "The word spread fast," Kalil recalls.
But just as it did for virtually all value
investors, Kalil's investment view underwent a drastic change in the
latter part of the 1990s. The technology craze, dot.com mania,
irrational exuberance-whatever tag you put on it, the Wall Street of
1999 was one that left Kalil and other value investors searching for
answers. Valuations were going through the roof. Kalil found bargains
harder to come by and he refused to dabble in technology, which he saw
as highly speculative and risky. The firm still performed well, but not
nearly as well as the "hot" investments, nor as well as it had done in
the past. So once again, the firm lost some clients.
It was as if he was working in his DuPont laboratory
one day and the laws of physics suddenly changed. "You had to really
push hard to buy a stock because they were all fully valued," he says.
"It was pretty close to full valuation."
Presented with a problem, Kalil once again
approached it like a scientist-by changing the formula. It was the type
of change rarely seen in the investment world. Kalil, a devotee of
value investing for more than 25 years, completely remade himself and
his firm in 2000. He scrapped value investing completely and
transitioned to an asset allocation philosophy devoted to downside
protection and steady, consistent performance with less risk. Kalil
even got rid of the company name, which was derived from "computing
value," and renamed it Affinity Wealth Management, which reflected the
firm's emphasis on full-service wealth management.
Instead of being a stock picker, Kalil became an
asset allocator and a wealth manager. Instead of building portfolios
with a basket of 25 to 35 individual stocks, he was using a universe of
more than 2,000 stocks. Ground-up equity analysis went out the window,
replaced by a macro view that left only marginal room for active
management of individual securities. He put his client's money in
low-cost mutual funds-most of them index funds-and ETFs, with a
momentum-based allocation model designed to limit loss and maintain
steady annual gains.
Three years ago Kalil added another layer to the
strategy, tying allocations to whether or not the market is in a bear
or bull market environment. Instead of looking forward, Kalil was now
predicating his entire investment scheme on looking backward. "We
shifted the emphasis to beating the market, but not by extravagant
margins," he says. "What we're doing is investing in an entire market.
We're not trying to make a killing. Our objectives have changed."
A Philosophical Shift
The transformation of Affinity Wealth Management
wasn't painless. Donald Kalil says clients and assets were lost during
the process. Ultimately, however, the firm reshaped its client base in
the same way it remade itself. The reward has been outperforming the
S&P 500 over a six-year period.
"We're more focused now on people approaching or
near retirement," Donald Kalil says. "These aren't the people looking
for home runs."
Yum Kim and her late husband were among the people
who were with Kalil at the beginning. They gave him $50,000-all the
money they had-25 years ago. Her husband worked at a company affiliated
with DuPont at the time, and they met Kalil at one of the company's
country clubs.
They heard about him and his investing acumen
through the company grapevine. One day they drove to his house, knocked
on his door and asked if he could handle their investments.
And that's where their funds have stayed. Kim left
her money with Kalil after her husband died seven years ago. She also
stuck with Kalil when her three adult children, caught up in the
dot.com boom seven years ago, were begging her to invest elsewhere.
"They ask me, mom, why don't you take out money and
put it in some high tech stock," she recalls. "I said, no, daddy made
this arrangement and I'm going to keep it there."
Getting a full grasp of the investment mechanics
Kalil has used for clients such as Kim isn't easy. His investment
formula, expressed mathematically on a chalkboard, resembles something
one might see at a lecture on general relativity or quantum mechanics.
In layman's terms, Kalil says the method is predicated on asset
allocation, with a touch of momentum-based asset allocation adjustments.
It also depends heavily on keeping funds low cost,
maximizing tax efficiency and limiting volatility. "You reduce the
risk, reduce the costs and increase the tax advantage," he says.
Portfolios are structured from a basket of about two
dozen funds, the large majority of them index funds. The percentage of
portfolios devoted to equities is solely dependent on a client's risk
tolerance and can range anywhere from 100% to 30%.
In each case, however, portfolios are built to be
representative of the market and global market segments. Each quarter,
Kalil says, the relative amounts of allocation in each market segment
is rebalanced, based on the previous three months' performance.
"We want to invest in as wide a footprint as
possible and keep your risks down," Kalil says. The strategy has been
most successful in protecting clients during bad times, he adds.
Illustrating the point, the firm's three-year
annualized returns for the period 2003 to 2005 has ranged from 16.5%
for aggressive portfolios (100% equities) to 7.9% for ultraconservative
portfolios (70% bonds). That beats a range of 14.4% to 7.5%
respectively for S&P 500/bond benchmark portfolios.
When the bear market years of 2001 and 2002 are
factored in, the picture changes. In the 2001 to 2005 period, the
five-year annualized returns range from 3.8% for aggressive portfolios
to 4.9% for ultraconservative portfolios. That compares to a range of
0.5% to 4.5% for benchmark portfolios.
Kalil added another layer to his strategy three
years ago, when he began to delve into the question of what defines a
bull or bear market. The answer he came up with, after trial and error,
was that a bear market exists when the S&P 500 index was at
negative 3% or lower for at least six months.
In his private investments, Kalil found that if he
cut his equity investments in half-replacing 50% of the securities with
bonds-upon the appearance of a bear market, and rebalanced both asset
allocations and equity ratios every three months, that he could achieve
greater returns. Portfolios are returned to their normal allocations
once the six-month performance of the S&P 500 goes above negative
3%.
"An unexpected bonus is it cuts the risk down
tremendously," he says. "The standard deviation was cut in half."
A back-testing of the bull-and-bear strategy found
that portfolios would have been in bear-market mode between the fourth
quarter of 2000 and the first quarter of 2003. The testing also showed
that in 2001, portfolios using the strategy would have gained 19%,
compared to an 11.9% loss in the S&P 500. In 2002, the gains would
have been 8.8%, compared to a 22.1% loss in the S&P 500.
"There's nothing magic about it," he says. "If you
get the volatility down you get the return up because you tend not to
lose all the money you made in the bull market."
Learning Never Ends
Finishing the task of putting Affinity Wealth on a
drastically new course hasn't slowed down Kalil. He continues to drink
up books, usually taking three or more courses per semester at the
University of Delaware Academy of Lifelong Learning. Among the subjects
he's studied recently include philosophy, the Crusades and the history
of the Near East.
"I just get a kick out of learning," he says.
Among the other projects he has lined up is writing
a book about growing up in Brooklyn and Buffalo, N.Y., including his
days as a shoeshine boy in downtown Brooklyn during the Great
Depression. Kalil, bringing the precision of an engineer to the task,
says he has 47 tales to tell, including the time he and his brother got
into an argument over a sailboat they had bought together. His brother,
it turned out, forgot to put a rudder on the boat and they were forced
to row it back to shore.
"The next morning, I get up and I hear sawing out
there," Kalil says. "I looked out the window and saw that he sawed the
boat in half."