Murray: I would argue we have an infinitely stronger economy and an infinitely stronger body politic. And they are not the same thing. You don't have OPEC, and you don't have Watergate. All crises pass. It's just a question of how bad they get before they do. The world doesn't end.

Simonoff: Is the post-September 11 bear market a new bear market or a continuation of the old bear market?

Murray: Great question. I tend to see it as a second bear market. I'm not sure history will bear me out, but I just find it easier to look at this as two consecutive bear markets.

Simonoff: Because the causes are so different?

Murray: Absolutely.

Simonoff: The first bear market, pre-September 11, was a healthy, badly needed bursting of the bubble?

Murray: Very much so. Up until September 11, it was barely able to put the economy into recession, and in my judgment, in early September, it was almost over.

Simonoff: The second bear market is now only three weeks old. Do you have any read as to whether it will be long or short?

Murray: My guess is that it's over. On October 4, with the S&P where it was on September 10, the second bear market looks like it's over. You could get a lot of money on the other side of that bet.

Simonoff: How long will it take the nation's investment and economic psyche to recover?

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