Finally, scandal has eroded investor confidence in corporate America and, to a lesser extent, Wall Street. With the confluence of these factors, says Meagley, "It could take five to seven years for a Schwab or a Morgan Stanley to earn what they did at the peak, if they get back. The next cycle doesn't have to be higher." Although securities firms could be acquired even in a slow-growth environment "there's not a lot in it for stock prices," he says. "It's not a theme."

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