It was supposed to be the silver lining to a year of brutal losses. As bond-fund managers watched the market value of their portfolio decline rate hike after rate hike, one thing was certain: companies would soon have to return to the market offering juicier yields.
But for all the yield concessions companies have had to offer investors to raise new debt this year, it’s proved to be of little comfort, a Bloomberg analysis of bond issuance data shows.
Of the 1,555 investment-grade bonds worth over $1.3 trillion that have been sold in the U.S. and Europe since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, all but 137 are now trading below their offering price, the data show. It totals up to paper losses of nearly $106 billion for investors so far.
“It highlights, once again, the need for investor discipline around deal pricing,” said Maria Staeheli, a senior portfolio manager at Fisch Asset Management. “Recently we have observed a tendency of investors to accept less attractive pricing even on some of the spicier names. We think that’s related to investors fearing they miss out on bear market rallies.”
For some deals, the price drops are so severe that the notes are now trading at what some investors consider to be distressed levels. A sterling-denominated social bond sold by bLend Funding Plc in April has fallen to 72 pence from an issue price of par, while in the U.S. market, a $7 billion 30 year bond sold in March by a unit of AT&T Inc. and Discovery Inc. has slumped to about 69 cents. A JAB Holdings B.V. bond priced in April has lost over a third of its value to 59 cents.
Bonds sold before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February have suffered the most. The 480 notes priced in January and February have dropped by an average of 17%, with total losses at around $64 billion, the data show.
More recent offerings haven’t been immune to the disruption that’s swept global markets. Nearly two-thirds of the 336 investment-grade bonds sold in September and October for which full pricing information is available are already quoted lower than the price they originally sold for, Bloomberg analysis shows.
It’s a grim picture for investors who would typically look to trade out of their existing holdings when a company comes to the market with a new deal. With global financial markets still volatile as central banks fight consumer price inflation and recession risks, conditions are unlikely to improve any time soon. Those firms that need to raise financing are also now facing ever-higher borrowing costs on the public debt markets, as average dollar, euro and sterling high-grade corporate yields have surged this year.
“The weakness is all ultimately being driven by inflation, so we need to get conviction that it’s rolling over for the market to turn around,” said Gordon Shannon, a portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management. “Given how volatile it has been, how long it’s gone on, I think that means really compelling evidence. A single down print on CPI won’t be enough.”
A handful of deals have kept afloat though. A selection of last week’s offerings from borrowers including Northumbrian Water Ltd and TenneT Holding BV in Europe and Lockheed Martin Corp. and British American Tobacco Plc in the U.S. have benefited from a bond rally to edge higher.