Every year there are always a few surprises that do not make the ten either because I do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are "probable."
Also rans:
11. As a result of enhanced security efforts, terrorist groups associated with ISIS and al Qaeda do NOT mount a major strike involving 100 or more casualties against targets in the U.S. or Europe in 2016. Even so, the United States accepts only a very limited number of asylum seekers from the Middle East during the year.
12. Japan pulls out of its 2015 second half recession as Abenomics starts working. The economy grows 1 percent, but the yen weakens further to 130 to the dollar. The Nikkei rallies to 22,000.
13. Investors get tough on financial engineering. They realize that share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, and inversions may give a boost to earnings per share in the short term, but they would rather see investment in capital equipment and research that would improve long-term growth. Multiples suffer.
14. 2016 turns out to be the year of breakthroughs in pharmaceuticals. Several new drugs are approved to treat cancer, heart disease, diabetes, Parkinson’s and memory loss. The cost of developing the breakthrough drugs and their efficacy encourage the political candidates to soften their criticism of pill pricing. Life expectancy will continue to increase, resulting in financial pressure on entitlement programs.
15. Commodity prices stabilize as agricultural and industrial material manufacturers cut production. Emerging market economies come out of their recessions and their equity markets astonish everyone by becoming positive performers in 2016.
Byron R. Wien is vice chairman of multi-asset investing at Blackstone.