A freeze is settling on commercial property markets.
Buildings that bustled with diners, drinkers and shoppers just weeks ago have gone quiet. Hotels that housed vacationers and business travelers are empty, while the industry in the U.S. loses an estimated $1.4 billion a week. Offices are eerily quiet.
And the tendrils of frost are spreading to industrial properties, apartments, and even student housing -- usually stable in hard times. This time, universities are ordering students off campus. As the coronavirus spreads, all the once-reliable havens are mired in uncertainty.
“On the investor side, there’s widespread panic,” said Alexi Panagiotakopoulos, partner at Fundamental Income, a real estate strategy firm. “There’s downward pressure on every aspect of every asset class.”
Assets can’t be valued when tens of millions of people around the world are locked in their homes and commerce has largely come to a halt, with no idea how long the crisis will last. Lack of consensus about the current or future value of assets is also threatening property sales, closing an exit door for investors and landlords.
The even bigger question is what will come when the crisis recedes. For every kind of property -- not to mention a wide range of human activity -- there will likely be long-lasting changes, said Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners.
Without clarity on those big questions, investors will be reluctant to part with their cash. Investment activity could fall by 45% this year in the U.S., which would be more than the decline following the 9/11 terrorist attacks or the 2008 financial crisis, according to Kiran Raichura, senior property economist at Capital Economics.
Already, large deals are in doubt. ViacomCBS Inc. said earlier this week it’s suspending plans to sell Manhattan’s Black Rock building because the outbreak has prevented would-be buyers from visiting the property, the former headquarters of CBS.
It’s also unclear what will happen with mall owner Simon Property Group’s $3.6 billion bid to buy rival Taubman Centers Inc. Both mall operators have closed most of their properties and Taubman’s shares have been trading below the proposed deal price for more than two weeks.
In the U.K., more than 11 billion pounds ($13 billion) has been frozen in property funds with appraisers warning that the virus makes it impossible to assess their value. The merger of brokers LSL Property Services Plc and Countryside Plc is already on the scrap heap and other deals in London are being delayed.