“Keep calm and carry on.” Advisors are keeping in contact with clients during the pandemic. Although we have a 24-hour news cycle, there isn’t much positive news we can pass along. We need to find more news.
Let’s add another perspective. My wife and I often travel to China as tourists. We’ve made friends in all walks of life. We keep in touch via WeChat, their version of Facebook. Friends are kind enough to share charts and data, along with observations about everyday life. Like us, they love posting pictures.
What Happened In China?
The Chinese got the virus first. This happened around Chinese New Year, January 25th, when almost everyone heads to their hometown to gather as a family. It’s similar to our family reunions at Thanksgiving. This posed a big problem, because people left big cities and dispersed. The government extended the holiday and required everyone to stay where they were. Wuhan in Hubei province was the hotspot. You saw how they could build 1,000 and 1,600 bed treatment centers, entire buildings in two weeks, complete with plumbing, sanitation and electricity.
What About Data Quality?
They have been gathering and reporting data. It’s logical to ask: “Is the data accurate?” Gathering data is an imprecise activity. Around the world, business leaders are used to making decisions based on incomplete data. You have scientists, health-care professionals and government officials working towards a common goal. Gathering data in a country with 1.4 billion people, many living in rural areas is tough. You’ve seen the revised death totals in Wuhan. We’ve got to trust worldwide, everybody does the best they can, revising as they get more data, current and historical.
Let’s Talk Data
The Covid-19 #Coronavirus Data Pack is very useful. It’s something our friends in China sent us. It reports both static data (what they learned from crunching numbers) and dynamic data. You can see the charts are updated frequently. Here are a few high points:
• We talk about flattening of curves. The first chart is Corona infection trajectories. You see the curves for at least 14 countries. You can see the growth of outbreaks is flattening in places like Spain and Italy. The data is frequently updated. This was current as of today (4/21). Sources include Johns Hopkins at the Financial Times.
• Fatality rates. Another chart shows in the U.S., 5.4% of those infected have died. In China, the percentage is 5.5%. The U.S. has 2,417 deaths per million people. That’s about half of Spain’s. It’s also current as of today (4/21/20). Johns Hopkins University is the source.
• 80.9% of those infected have mild symptoms. “Like flu, stay at home.” This is based on a study of 44,672 confirmed cases in China, compiled by the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Statista is also mentioned. It’s dated 3/31/20.
• Death rate for people without pre-existing conditions is 0.9%. If you have cardiovascular disease or diabetes, the death rate increases to 10.5% and 7.3% respectively. Same source as above, same date.
• What about Italy? Since those aged 60+ are at higher risk, it’s useful to look at another 100-box grid chart. Using an average victim age of 79, 48% of deaths were for people with 3+ serious medical conditions. 25% of deaths came from patients with one condition plus the virus. 1% came from people with no pre-existing conditions plus the virus. The source cited in 355 deaths from 16,925 confirmed cases as reported by the Italian Portal of Epidemiology for public health. Same dating, 3/31/20.
There are 10 charts in the Data Pack. You can check out others.
Let’s Talk More Data
How about cases in China? The U.S.? Worldwide? Here’s what friends in China provided.
The Worldometer Covid19 Coronavirus Pandemic chart lists data by country across 11 categories. It lists data for 210 countries and is frequently updated. We are most interested in U.S. data. As of 4/21/20 they report:
Total U.S. cases: 799,780
New cases: + 7,021
Total deaths: 43,177 (5.4%)
New deaths added: + 663
Total recovered: 72,561 (9.1%)
Active cases: 684,442
Serious/Critical: 13,951 (2% of active cases)
Total cases (per 1 mm): 2,416 (cases per million of population)
Deaths (per 1 mm): 130 (deaths per million of population)
Tests administered: 4,058,245
Tests (per 1 mm): 12,60 (tests per million of population)
The chart also allows you to drill down to the state level. It’s a dynamic chart, frequently updated. The chart also shows data for China at the national level while a third chart, Covid-19 Global Pandemic Real Time Map shows data at the county, province and city level in China.