Strengthening Government: Small-government conservatives like me and possibly you are on the defensive. We live in a time when most voters would rather enlarge government than shrink it. We can expect to see stronger government action regardless of who wins this year’s presidential election.
Party Realignment: Donald Trump is obviously changing the Republican Party into something quite different than it was just four years ago. Bernie Sanders, by forcing Hillary Clinton to tack left in the primaries, may have done the same to the Democrats. I don’t think this is over yet. We will see a lot of shifting and movement between the two parties as they redefine themselves. I am really quite taken with an interview that Trump did a few weeks ago where he talked about his vision that the Republican Party would be a “workers’ party” within four to eight years. You spring that on me four years ago, and I smile indulgently. Now, within the framework of the Protected versus the Unprotected, I wonder… (The background music has to be from my generation’s chief prophet, Bob Dylan, and the song is “The Times They Are A-Changin’.”)
Introverted Foreign Policy: Fifteen years on, the U.S. is increasingly tired of the War on Terror. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders both gained traction in the primaries with a less aggressive approach to foreign engagement.
Technology to Scale: The Internet has outgrown its adolescence and entered adulthood. The technology industry now views the Internet as a platform on which to build new capabilities: virtual reality, home automation, video content, and more.
Rising Income Equality: The years of ZIRP and QE served mainly to drive up asset prices, enriching those who are already wealthy and doing little for everyone else. Now a backlash is building against wealth concentration. We may see attempts to raise taxes on the wealthy, higher working-class wages, and other measures intended to “level the playing field.”
Wage Disruption: In the last year we’ve seen major retailers hike hourly pay; $15/hour minimum wages passed in California and elsewhere; and there are growing calls for labor to get a bigger piece of the pie.
Fourth Turnings bring social and cultural changes, too.
Fertility Bust: Birth rates are now near or even significantly below replacement rate throughout the developed world. Much of the Millennial Generation feels financially or otherwise unprepared for parenthood.
Falling Immigration: Both the US and Europe are trying to control immigrant flows. Refugees from the Middle East are the exception in an otherwise less migratory world.
Falling Crime: Criminal activity varies tremendously depending on where you are, but overall rates are down considerably from the 1980s and 1990s.
Strengthening Family: This one may seem counterintuitive with birth rates down and young people reluctant to marry. My observations are that people delay marriage today precisely because they respect it so much. They want to do it right or not at all. And once they do have kids, they take parenting very seriously. My Millennial Generation children, Howe’s Hero archetype, are amazingly protective of their children, as are all their friends. They seemingly script every moment of their children’s lives. My three-year-old granddaughter just started school, for God’s sake. My generation just didn’t approach child rearing like that. (Okay, your personal mileage may vary as to how you raised your kids. I am talking about a now-older generation, which surprisingly includes me.)
Practical Culture: The financial crisis forced a new standard of frugality on many Americans in 2008 and afterward. Now it has evolved into the “sharing” economy exemplified by Uber and Airbnb. We even see the trend in fashion: Millennials have little interest in prestige labels and much prefer the low-priced “fast fashion” they can buy at Zara or H&M.
Rediscovered Norms: The Fourth Turning is a time when people rediscover the values and norms that launched the previous saeculum. That process can take many shapes, of course, but we may again see the “all-together” ethos that brought the US through the Depression and World War II.