One notable exception is the bear market that accompanied Volcker’s interest rate hikes in the early 1980s. As I have indicated in the past, anyone who expects a similar monetary policy, should not expect gold to perform well. However, we take the Fed at its word that even as inflation and employment moves back to what historically was considered normal, rates may continue to be lower than normal (as the last paragraph of the FOMC statement has stated this since the spring of 2014). To me, that’s a commitment to be ‘behind the curve’, i.e. that rates will be rising slower than inflation. In fact, Fed Vice Chair Stan Fischer in a speech on Monday, February 1, 2016, said that he wouldn’t mind for inflation to temporarily overshoot on the upside. All of this suggests that real interest rates may continue to be low, possibly even negative. While there is no assurance gold will do well in such an environment, to me, it is a key long-term driver for the price of gold.