Meanwhile, David Kelly, chief global strategist of JPMorgan’s asset management unit, thinks we have created an inflation bomb. It is just waiting for a spark to ignite it. The huge fiscal stimulus in addition to the monetary expansion could be it, in his telling.

Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones has been buying Bitcoins because it reminds him of investing in gold in the 1970 as a hedge against inflation.

Former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Charles Goodhart, is warning that “Inflation could exceed 5% in 2021, and perhaps even reach 10% – outcomes resembling the aftermaths of World Wars I and II.”

All of these folks seem to be missing what motivated this unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus: The single greatest economic collapse in U.S. history.

The conditions after both world wars were quite different from today: There was huge pent-up demand because of war-time rationing followed by a burst of spending once hostilities ended. Both are classic examples of too much money chasing too little supply.

Underlying many of these analyses is the assumption that the $2 trillion fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve's monetary easing will pump too much money into the economy.

Yet that money just barely replaces the lost business incomes and wages, which most recipients are using to pay for basics such as rent, food and medicine. Even the small businesses that received Paycheck Protection Program funds are afraid to spend it.

The main reason to doubt the return of inflation is really very straightforward. Although the numbers are not yet in yet, let's take a guess at how much damage this recession has done. The financial crisis caused the economy to contract by 4%. This blow is much worse and might reduce gross domestic product by as much at 10% — possibly more.

That's an enormous hole to dig out of, and it will likely take many years to return to pre-pandemic levels of demand. Does anyone think the U.S. will be back to the same levels of confidence and spending in a year, even if there is a vaccine or cure for Covid-19 -- neither of which is certain?

Even a return to 95% of 2019 levels within a year may be too sanguine.