Elsewhere, Trump has been able to establish working relationships with British and French leaders, notes Valliere, and Western Europe appears to be undergoing an economic recovery that may create opportunities for international investors.

The largest wildcard, according to Valliere, is the ongoing investigation into the relationship between Trump and Russia. Former FBI Director Robert Mueller, serving as special counsel in the investigation, will likely report his findings this coming winter—if he isn’t dismissed first.

“If it becomes clear through leaks this fall that Mueller is looking into Trump’s finances, and Trump decides to try to dismiss Mueller, then you have a constitutional crisis,” he says. “If that happens, it would be an enormous roadblock for any legislation moving forward as we go into next year.”

Meanwhile, Congress will have to pivot from health-care reform to the budget when it returns, and will have to address the debt ceiling by mid October, says Valliere, which will push much of the Trump and Republican agenda back to 2018.

The clock has already run out on legislative attempts to repeal the Dodd-Frank Act and avoid the full implementation of the U.S. Department of Labor’s fiduciary rulemaking on Jan. 1, 2018, says Valliere. Efforts to fund infrastructure projects and to build a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico will probably be delayed to 2019, when the White House may have a less cooperative Congress in place.

While Democrats have a good chance next year of picking up the 24 seats that they would need to control the House of Representatives, they may continue to lose ground in the Senate, says Valliere.

“Of the 33 seats up for grabs in the Senate, 25 are held by Democrats,” he says. “Ten of them are held by Democrats in states where Trump won, and 5 of those are in states where Trump won by double digits. I think Republicans could get up to 54 or 55 seats in the Senate.”