The economic data arriving this week and next will help to solidify the near-term outlook for growth and monetary policy. There are almost certainly going to be surprises along the way and the financial markets have a tendency to over-react. However, it’s likely that the figures will remain consistent with moderate economic growth.
GDP is a quarterly figure, but every month has a GDP estimate. First comes the advance estimate, with is based on incomplete information, followed by the 2nd estimate a month later and the 3rd estimate a month after that. Data on foreign trade and inventories has been missing in the advance estimate, a major uncertainty for those trying to forecast the growth figure -- but that changes this week. The Bureau of Census will release June import and export data (goods only) and estimates of June wholesale and retail inventories. These figures are subject to later revisions, but they should get us a step closer to the initial estimate. Still, many uncertainties remain.