The question arises whether Naimi's replacement by Falih will see a continuation of the existing policy or be used as an opportunity to adjust or evolve it.

Naimi was the principal architect of the decision to maintain output, defend market share and allow prices to find their own level in the second half of 2014.

The strategy has taken longer to work and proved much more costly than Saudi Arabia's policymakers seem to have anticipated.

But the strategy finally appears to be working, with production from U.S. shale and other non-OPEC sources in steep decline and oil prices up by more than $20 from their recent low.

Even if Naimi was the principal architect of the production policy, it has been enthusiastically supported by both Falih and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

If anything, the deputy crown prince has appeared to favor an even more hawkish approach to production and price policy.

In the run up to Doha, the prince appeared to want to use low oil prices as a weapon in the broader diplomatic confrontation with Iran ("Saudi Arabia turns oil weapon on Iran," Reuters, Apr 18).

In an interview, the prince claimed to be unconcerned whether oil prices were at $30 or $70 per barrel as "they are all the same to us" ("The $2 trillion project to get Saudi Arabia's economy off oil," Bloomberg, Apr 21).

Falih, too, has insisted the kingdom would defend its market share and allow prices to find their own level, a position he reiterated on Sunday ("Saudi Arabia says to maintain stable petroleum policies," Reuters, May 8).

So there is no reason to expect a significant change in the substance of Saudi production policy from either the new energy minister or the deputy crown prince.