This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin did three very interesting things. First, he fired his long-time aide and chief of staff, Sergei Ivanov, and moved him to a lower position. A few weeks earlier, Putin fired at least three regional governors and replaced them with his personal bodyguards. Removing that many governors is a bit odd. Replacing them with his bodyguards is very odd. Then removing someone as close to him as Ivanov is extremely odd.
Second, Russia raised pressure on Ukraine. The Russians claimed that Ukrainian special forces attacked Russian-held Crimea. They announced that they had sent S-400 anti-air missiles to Crimea. With a 250-mile range, these missiles can reach deep into Ukraine. There were also persistent reports of Russian troop movements along Russia’s western border with Ukraine. An unconfirmed report claimed that a Russian brigade moved into territory held by rebels in Eastern Ukraine.
Finally, Putin has shown some signs that he is prepared to force Armenia to return parts of Nagorno-Karabakh, a contested region, to Azerbaijan.
Armenia is hostile toward Turkey over what it calls the Armenian genocide and Turkey’s unwillingness to apologize for it. Armenia is historically a close Russian ally, with Russian troops stationed in the country. After Turkish President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan’s visit to Moscow, Putin met with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and gave him the news.
This is a radical change in Russian policy. For the moment, it pleases Turkey—and especially Azerbaijan—but appears as if Russia is abandoning a long-time ally. This move gives pause to anyone planning on allying with Russia. Even stranger, it seems that Turkey has not made any equivalent concession in return.
Putin's Weakness
Putin is purging his office and leadership throughout Russia. He is making large foreign policy concessions at the expense of close allies for no visible advantage. He is ramping up a crisis in Ukraine. He is acting strangely and likely has a reason. Putin is seen as an aggressive absolute dictator, a reputation he wants to cultivate. But the truth has always been far more complex. Now, it is getting even more convoluted.
Begin with the fact that Putin has two huge problems. I have already written about how Russia’s economy has been in freefall since oil prices dropped. Last week, Russia released its Q2 GDP estimate that showed a slowing in economic contraction. That is good news, in a way.
The second problem is his failure in Ukraine. The West sees him as the aggressor there, which he was. Yet, the tale began with Western-backed protesters that ousted a pro-Russian government and replaced it with a pro-Western one.