If the Republicans now have the South and the white working class, what do they do with it once the culture wars subside? Both parties tossed out historical coalitions to fight the culture wars. When they are done, there is no clear hold the Democrats have on any group for primarily economic reasons—the Democrats’ old foundation. The Republicans actually have more currency there now. But these groups and the traditional Republican base don’t live well with each other.
It is tempting to say that the Republicans are a permanent opposition party now, but that would be wrong. For the moment, they have the possibility of owning the emerging challenge in the U.S.—the ability of the middle class (and those below) to afford a decent standard of living. This was one of Reagan’s issues, and Trump resurrected it. The question is what the Republicans will do with the issue.
Nevertheless, I will argue that when we look back at this year, the Republicans will have lost the election, but they have been handed an opportunity to build a new coalition. The U.S. may or may not find that whites are a minority, but it is not clear that all non-whites have common interests. Franklin Roosevelt had white urban workers. And Nixon offended white suburbanites. The Republicans’ acquisition of white non-college educated males, plus the South, is not trivial. This is a vital but not sufficient base. And we will see that when hard times come, as they always do.
Tying this base together with a winning coalition will not be easy, as it challenges what the Republican Party has become for the last generation. But then, Trump has ended that phase of Republican history.
George Friedman, an expert in intelligence and international geopolitics, is the founder and chairman of the publication Geopolitical Futures and has partnered with Mauldin Economics on This Week in Geopolitics.