Treasuries advanced after a Beijing coronavirus breakout intensified concerns about a second wave of infections.
Traders raced for the longer end of the curve, sending the yield on 30-year bonds down as much as seven basis points, and those on 10-year maturities by five basis points. While demand for the world’s safest assets calmed down during European trading hours, long-term securities continued to outperform their shorter-dated peers.
Traded volumes in Treasury futures were close to double the average for the first three hours of the day’s session in Asia.
Beijing shut its largest fruit and vegetable supply center after dozens of people associated with the market tested positive for the virus, adding to concerns over rising infections in 22 U.S. states. European stocks declined steeply at the market open, led by cyclical sectors such as travel and oil, and S&P 500 futures dropped as much as 3.3%.
Meanwhile, the dollar is up, according to the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index.
“The higher numbers in the U.S. that are starting to emerge have really fed fears about second waves, and the story about Beijing closing a large fruit and vegetable market has fanned that,” said Andrew Ticehurst, rates strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Sydney. This has been driving the drop in long-end Treasury yields, he said.
There are signs the rally in Treasuries will continue. The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that hedge funds and other large speculators have flipped to long U.S. 10-year futures for the first time since 2017. That puts the prospect of yields falling to 0% back in focus.
Europe’s less severe second wave concerns were reflected in the more muted moves of its debt markets. Yields on government bonds fell across the board, led by peripheral nations such as Greece and Spain. The continent has so far succeeded in loosening its lockdown without a spike in cases.
Monday’s flattening move in Treasuries may have been supported by some funds bailing out of popular steepener trades, where investors bet that long-end yields will climb faster. Wall Street banks including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have all recommended some form of a steepener strategy.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.