In a hypothetical matchup between President Biden and former President Trump among voters over 50, Trump leads by 1 point in the top 40 most competitive congressional districts, according to a new poll by the AARP.
In a second AARP matchup, President Biden trailed Gov. DeSantis 48% to 43% among voters over 50, while Biden and DeSantis tied at 45% among voters 18 to 50, AARP found.
“Not only are 50+ voters expected to constitute a majority of votes in battleground districts in 2024, they also report having significantly higher motivation to vote than younger voters,” according to the survey of 1,752 voters conducted in the 40 U.S. House districts that Cook Political Report rated as “Lean” or “Toss Up” as of July 5. In 2020, Trump beat Biden by 4% of of the national vote among voters over 50, according to Pew Research.
“Candidates can’t afford to ignore the issues that matter to the 50+—who will likely be the decisive voting bloc in 2024—especially in an election cycle where control of Congress and the White House are both up for grabs,” Nancy LeaMond, AARP executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer, said in a statement.
In the 2020 presidential election, the share of voters 50+ was nearly three times that of voters under 30 (53% to 18%).
In the 2018 and 2022 mid-term elections, the share of voters 50+ was about four times that of voters under 30, (56% to 15% and 59 to 12%, respectively), the AARP said.
“Not only will older voters likely continue to make up a larger share of the electorate in 2024, they are also much more motivated to vote. Eighty-five percent of voters 50+ say they are extremely motivated to vote in 2024, compared to just 67% of younger voters,” the group said.
While Democrats have an overall advantage over Republicans among voters over 50 on caregiving (44% - 38%), voter allegiance seems to change depending on the issue, AARP said.
For instance, in a generic congressional ballot, more caregivers today said they vote Republican over Democrat (49% to 38%), while Democrats lead by three points (42% to 39%) on their perceived handling of prescription drug costs, the AARP said.
“Caregiving and the cost of prescription drugs could very likely be the most important issues of the upcoming election cycle,” LeaMond said.
While pessimists expect Social Security and Medicare reform to be debated closer to the 2028 presidential race, they are the most important issues for the 50+ voting block (81% and 77%, respectively), the organization said.
Some 70% of these voters also want candidates to support policies to help older adults live independently at home as they age, by increasing Medicare- and insurance-covered home health and caregiver services, the survey found.
Some 67% of the 50+ voting block also wants lower prescription drug prices, the AARP said.
Candidates and their handlers will also want to note that 38% of voters are currently caregivers, a number that doubles when those who have been one in the past or expect to be one in the future are included, the survey found.