The most contentious U.S. presidential election in more than a century poses the biggest global risk of 2020, ushering in the potential for social instability, some level of political violence and questions about democracy, according to Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer.
“Whether it’s Trump who wins or a Democrat who wins, the opponents are likely to say it’s rigged and unlikely to accept the outcome,” Bremmer said in a conference call from New York on Monday.
Still, Bremmer and Eurasia Chairman Cliff Kupchan said the so-called “axis of evil” that includes Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and Syria isn’t likely to blow up; the U.S., Europe and Japan remain well-positioned to withstand a populist storm; and Boris Johnson’s big win gives the U.K. a break from the worst of Brexit turmoil.
Here’s a look at the firm’s top risks:
1. Rigged Election
U.S. institutions will be tested in unprecedented ways ahead of November’s presidential election. Just 53% of the American public say the vote will be fair, according to a September poll by Ipsos. If President Donald Trump wins amid credible charges of irregularities, the election process will become contested. And if he loses, the same scenario applies.
2. Technology Disruption
Competition between U.S. and Chinese technology companies will move beyond strategic areas such as semiconductors, cloud computing and 5G into broader economic activity. That may accelerate the shift in global value chains, while also disrupting investment levels and stock market listings for Chinese firms.
3. U.S.-China
There’s a trade war truce, yet little chance of a breakthrough. The U.S. will take tough measures against Beijing, including sanctions, technology controls and efforts to curb capital to Chinese companies. Meantime, China will retaliate by adding companies to its “unreliable entities” list. With Trump focused on his re-election, President Xi Jinping may test how hard the American president will be willing to push back on Hong Kong and Taiwan, risking an unexpected backlash.