House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei last summer was “damaging” and “dumb,” he said. Were Rep. Kevin McCarthy, expected to be Pelosi’s successor, to follow through and visit the thriving island, it would be “even more damaging” because it would indicate to the CCP leadership that American support for Taiwan’s independence is bipartisan.
Ordinary citizens in Taiwan and America may cheer Pelosi—even McCarthy applauded her visit. But what plays in Peoria and among many refugees of the 1949 Communist takeover of the mainland could prove disatrous. Fuss, who knew the founder of the world’s largest chip maker, Taiwan Semiconductor, said the Taiwanese business community strongly disapproves of American politicians seeking to pander to their fellow citizens and sympathizers.
“All it does is make it more likely we end up in a shooting war [with China],” Fuss said. Needless to say, a shooting war between the U.S. and China would inflict far more damage on the world economy than the current Russian-Ukraine war.
Fuss noted that the power bloc Xi Jinping derives his strongest political support from is the Chinese military. If he loses support among other major special interest groups, it’s likely to make him more reliant on them. And they’ve been practicing an invasion of the island for decades. Some in the Chinese military probably are getting bored with drills.
There are numerous military actions China could take without initiating an all-out shooting war, Fuss observed. One obvious move would be a naval blockade. “They could also cut the cables,” he said.
Given that 50% of global trade moves through the South China Sea, it’s difficult to underestimate what this kind of confrontation would mean for the world economy. And it could happen without any party firing a single shot, he said.