The president had not been regarded as a decisive figure before Roosevelt. Roosevelt spoke of the bully pulpit as the means of compensating for the lack of power in the office. But as the United States entered a state of permanent near war, the president’s role in foreign policy became the core of his authority.
The Illusion of Power
As it became the core of the presidency, this illusion of the president as enormously powerful grew. And the financial community became obsessed with who would become president. Whether Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, or whomever.
A careful reading of a presidential candidate’s policy papers is one of the most pointless exercises imaginable. Even assuming that a candidate has read these documents and believes in them, he is not in control of what his own policies look like.
In terms of domestic proposals, a candidate’s options are profoundly limited. And in terms of foreign policy, a candidate is limited by not knowing what the US will face in the next four years. George W. Bush opposed nation building during the campaign. Bush did not anticipate that 9/11 would render all his positions meaningless. Obama assumed that he could reverse the hatred of the Islamic world for the United States by being conciliatory, but he was forced to become involved in the region’s conflicts.
In thinking about presidents, it is essential to remember they not only make history but history makes them. History causes us to remember FDR for his role in World War II. It causes us to remember Lyndon B. Johnson for his role in Vietnam. LBJ did not expect to be remembered in that way.
In the end, policies, like plans in war, die the first day in office. But the character of the president might make a difference. It’s not that the president doesn’t matter. It is just that he doesn’t matter nearly as much as the financial markets and others think. And if we ask why almost half the country doesn’t vote in presidential elections, it may be that they are on to something.
The intentions of the president are unimportant. They are subject to many forces that can block and overpower him. They are hostage to events that might make his intentions pointless. The obsession with the American president is partly due to the fact that he is the only official directly elected by all of the people. It is partly due to the role of commander in chief, in an age of nuclear weapons and global presence. In domestic affairs the president can be influential or a bystander. But he is never, by himself alone, a decision-maker. The presidential election is interesting, but it does not define the future of the republic.
George Friedman is editor of Mauldin Economics' This Week In Geopolitics.