Can you imagine a 2019 with no further rate increases, robust market growth, no recession and a second Brexit referendum?
One prominent economic forecaster sure can, and that's just some of what he says is in store for this year in his annual list of "surprises."
Byron R. Wien, vice chairman in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone, issued his list of "Ten Surprises for 2019" on Thursday, and it paints a rosier picture than some investors might expect, considering recent market volatility and economic signals.
This is the 34th year Byron has released his list, which contains his views on economic, financial and political events for the coming year. Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would give a one-in-three chance of happening, but which he believes has a better than 50-50 chance of becoming a reality.
If he's correct, Washington, D.C., may get a little quieter this year: He predicts that the Mueller investigation will draw to a close, and that Democrats and Republican will work together to enact an infrastructure spending bill.
If you go by Wien's 2018 predictions, his forecast for this year may turn out to contain more hits than misses. In 2018, for example, he predicted that populism would continue to spread globally, which it did. He was also right about the 2018 economy doing better than in 2017 and the Fed increasing rates four times in 2018.
Wien was partly right on the S&P 500 -- he predicted a 10 percent drop, when the drop ended up slightly lower -- and he predicted the GOP would lose both the House and the Senate in the mid-terms. The party ended up losing only the House. He also predicted China would cut off food and fuel shipments to North Korea to force the nation to end its nuclear program, which did not come close to happening.
Wien's surprises for 2019, in his exact words, are as follows:
1. The weakening world economy encourages the Federal Reserve to stop raising the federal funds rate during the year. Inflation remains subdued and the 10-year Treasury yield stays below 3.5 percent. The yield curve remains positive.
2. Partly because of no further rate increases by the Federal Reserve and more attractive valuations as a result of the market decline at the end of 2018, the S&P 500 gains 15 percent for the year. Rallies and corrections occur but improved earnings enable equities to move higher in a reasonably benign interest-rate environment.