Then there are those who highlight the risk that increased exports will take supplies of gas, and probably of oil as well, out of the US just when consumer prices for all forms of energy are rising rapidly. America has come to enjoy the self-sufficiency in oil and gas that shale has provided, and it is uncertain whether becoming the world’s major gas exporter holds any great attraction.
It will be difficult for US President Joe Biden to reconcile these different points of view. His administration’s major legislative initiatives to limit GHG emissions and promote clean energy have stalled in Congress or been reduced in scale and likely impact. The environmental lobby, an important part of the Democratic Party’s voting base, is already expressing disappointment at the lack of progress, amid fears that the Democrats could lose control of Congress in November’s midterm elections.
On the other hand, a large and growing shortage of natural gas in Europe, where there is already talk of rationing, could undermine public support for sanctions against Russia. The temptation for Germany and others to push the Ukrainian government into accepting an unsatisfactory peace deal with Russia will only grow if the impact of gas shortages on the European economy increases.
Putin’s war against Ukraine has put energy security back at the top of the political agenda on both sides of the Atlantic. The choices now facing US and European leaders may be uncomfortable, but they are also urgent and unavoidable.
Nick Butler, a visiting professor at King’s College London, is founding chair of the Kings Policy Institute and chair of Promus Associates.