FintekNews is pleased to launch our new feature “The Zigmont Report (Daily Market Recap)” today. We will publish this right after the market close, and each feature will appear the following morning on our M/W/F newsletter as well.

Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $10B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide. Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending shortly after the market close.

The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Harvest Volatility Management, LLC.

Keeping busy… by waiting. Today was dull and there’s little to discuss. Capital flow was reasonable at 94% but there wasn’t much price movement. The bulls pushed the tape up a little bit during the day although there was a fade in the last 30 minutes of trading. This is concocted drama by me however. Things were even less exciting than I just made them out to be.

It’s summer. It happens.

In the big picture we are officially waiting. We are waiting for some clear signs. Whether they are clearly bullish or bearish, remains to be seen, but at the moment we have ambiguous signs that correspond to less important parts of the economic picture.

We are waiting for:

  • GDP data (third revision for Q1 arrives 6/29)
    • Market is more interested in future GDP estimates, but those changes come over time
  • Earnings season (YUM announces 7/5 but big banks really kick things off 7/14)
  • The Fed (next FOMC decision is 7/26)
    • Expected to be a do-nothing meeting but the Street is looking for guidance on balance sheet action and a late-year hike)
  • Nonfarm payrolls (7/7)
    • Clue to economic health and important driver of Fed actions
  • Other Central Banks (ECB 7/20, BOE 8/3, BOC 7/12, BOJ 7/20, PBOC unscheduled)
    • Other banks expected to stay easy although if the People’s Bank of China acts, it’s a big deal)
  • Any major geopolitical event
    • A bolt from the blue is usually a negative but maybe it can be a positive, e.g. a legislative development or a peace/trade deal. Am just saying that a surprise doesn’t have to be bearish.
So my point is that all the other stuff we hear and read about is small ball (Uber CEO resigns, Qatar wants to invest in American Airlines, George Clooney’s tequila company gets bought, etc.). The next leg of US equity market movement will be driven by the *

big

* things. The highly probable drivers of activity are above but there’s always the chance to be surprised. Wait with me

tomorrow

,

-Mike