We expected Chinese growth to slow in 2015, but were surprised by the magnitude of the decline. So far this year, the United States has contributed $448 billion to global GDP compared to $390 billion from China.
6. U.S. equities enjoy another good yet volatile year, as corporate earnings and the U.S. dollar rise.
Whether we get this one correct will depend on if the volatile equity market finishes in positive territory. Corporate earnings have been mixed, with the energy sector dragging down overall results. The dollar rose sharply this year and is up 9.3%.
7. The technology, health care and telecom sectors outperform utilities, energy and materials.
This is the prediction we got “most correct” this year. Our preferred sectors handily outperformed our least favored ones. The former group are up an average of 3.4% and the latter are down 13.4%.
8. Oil prices fall further before ending the year higher than where they began.
Oil prices were extremely volatile this year. Prices were higher than their starting point ($53) at several times throughout 2015, but experienced a sharp downturn in recent weeks and are now at $35.
9. U.S. equity mutual funds show their first significant inflows since 2004.
In contrast to prediction 7, this is the one on which we are “most wrong.” Through November, equity fund flows have been negative, which makes the relative resilience of equity prices quite impressive.
10. The Republican and Democratic presidential nominations remain wide open.