The two increases that the Fed still anticipates this year now seem as unlikely as the four it previously saw; and while Yellen says April remains a "live meeting," traders see a less than 8 percent chance of an increase next month. With other central banks still on the path of monetary easing -- Norway drove its benchmark rate down by a quarter-point to 0.5 percent on Thursday -- the Fed's December rate increase looks increasingly like a policy mistake that may have to be unwound, rather than augmented. If there is indeed a U.S. rate cut this year, the Fed's credibility will suffer, and the reputation of forward guidance may be fatally wounded.
 

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