I am surprised the market is not selling off more, given Russia’s latest provocative convoy incursion into Ukraine. But Chair Yellen didn't exactly exude confidence at Jackson Hole and yet wasn't dovish enough to delay expectations of a first rate hike past next summer. In my view, the simple decision matrix for getting stocks right this summer continues to be:
So, the market looks like it may tread water and digest its recent gains near term before becoming more volatile in September, given a rich economic calendar culminating in another Fed meeting on September 16 and 17.
In the meantime, Chair Yellen can't possibly get more dovish as the August employment report nears, and Putin can't be up to any good sending a 280-truck convoy into Ukraine for purely humanitarian reasons.
Longer term, we remain bullish. We believe 3 percent GDP growth and sub 2 percent inflation, 6 to 8 percent S&P 500 earnings growth, and strong buyback and M&A activity driven by attractive valuations and cheap financing set the market up for further gains.
Gary D. Black is the executive vice president, global co-chief investment officer at Calamos. Black oversees Calamos’ portfolio management, trading, research and risk management in partnership with John P. Calamos Sr., with whom he leads the Investment Committee. He joined Calamos in 2012 and has 22 years of industry experience in a number of executive leadership roles.