The American political system and cultural landscape is awash in turmoil as the country heads into 2020 and another presidential election.
But at the White Plains, N.Y., offices of Stock Trader’s Almanac, the impending election is undergoing the same analysis and probability markers as other eventful moments in American history, as they relate to the stock market.
Now in its 53rd year of publication, the almanac’s mantra is “studying market history can produce gains,’’ a concept that holds even in these volatile times.
"JP Morgan’s classic retort, 'stocks will fluctuate,' is often quoted with a wink-of-the-eye implication that the only prediction one can make about the stock market is that it will go up, down, or sideways," writes Jeffrey A. Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the almanac and chief market strategist for Probabilities Fund Management LLC. The book was co-written by Christopher Mistal and is published by Wiley. "Many investors agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move. Nothing could be further from the truth.’’
"We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns," he writes. "These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence."
But what does Hirsch have to say about the reliability of the four-year presidential election/stock market cycle, with a possible impeachment of President Trump and, following that, a trial in the Senate looming?
“I am not convinced it will happen, but I honestly don’t know because I can’t read the gamesmanship of the Democrats and the White House. But the market does not seem to be telling us it is concerned, and that is what we look at. I look at the market for cues, as it is the barometer of the country,’’ Hirsch said.
Sure enough, the day before Hirsch spoke to Financial Advisor on Monday, the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite indexes hit all-time closing highs. Both indexes also achieved intraday records. Trump tweeted, “Another new Stock Market Record. Enjoy!’’
The Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020 saw such a probability back in July, when Hirsch assembled the book, based on historical research from 1950 to the present.
November has been the number one S&P month and number two Dow month since 1950; it also kicks off what are traditionally regarded as the stock market's best six months of the year. The week before Thanksgiving, the] Dow has been up 19 out of the last 26 years, according to the almanac, adding that in presidential election years, November has been the best month for the Dow and the S&P 500.