Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden is likely to defeat President Donald Trump in next week’s general election contests, according to a political analyst popular with investors, but America might not know the real outcome for many weeks.
In some states, like Pennsylvania, election results may take weeks to roll in, said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist for AGF Investments, to advisors at Schwab’s virtual 2020 IMPACT conference this week.
“We could go to bed on the night of November 3 and not know who is the winner,” he said. “The one scenario that might make a difference is if Biden becomes a clear winner in Florida—and we should know by 9 to 9:30 p.m. who is doing well in Florida. If it’s Biden, I can’t see Donald Trump winning this election.”
But many states may take a week—or more—to return results, said Valliere, pointing out that it took six weeks to finalize the results in a primary for a House of Representatives seat from New York state this summer.
Advisors and their clients should be concerned about what might happen should the results be unclear or questionable.
“Let’s say it looks like Trump narrowly lost, just barely in Pennsylvania and Arizona and the electoral college—he will appeal that,” said Valliere. “Trump has made it clear he will take the election to the courts. He’s convinced that the election is rigged, there’s corruption in the voting, and that it’s all rigged against him.”
The last time a presidential election went to the courts, in 2000’s Bush v. Gore, it took the Supreme Court of the U.S. until December 12 to stop the Florida recount, which made George W. Bush the winner.
This year, arguments and deliberations could go into 2021, said Valliere.
“On January 20, at 12 noon, the Constitution is quite explicit about what is to happen,” said Valliere. “You must inaugurate a new president. If there isn’t one picked yet, some constitutional experts are saying we could have temporary President Nancy Pelosi (who is currently speaker of the House of Representatives, third in the line of presidential succession), or Senate [President] Pro Tempore Chuck Grassley, who is 87 years old. You can’t make this stuff up.”
Valliere believes that Biden will win the popular vote, but the electoral vote is still in question.
“If he can get the big three: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, I think Biden will be just about there,” said Valliere. “I don’t think the winner will get more than 300 [electoral] votes, but I make Biden the favorite to get around 300 electoral votes.”
In contrast, DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeff Gundlach said on Tuesday that he believes Donald Trump will win re-election.
Valliere points out that, even with his huge deficits in most national and battleground state polls just days before the election, it’s too soon to rule out the re-election of the president.