“People feel like [Trump] hasn’t handled it well: The U.S. has about 4% of the world’s population, but about 24% of the gross fatalities,” he said. “I wouldn’t call that doing a great job. He continues to have rallies with many people who do not wear masks, and his polling numbers have been quite weak.”
But Trump might get some late traction with voters if he runs against Biden’s agenda.
Biden is particularly vulnerable to attacks on his tax plan, said Valliere.
“You have to conclude that Joe Biden’s proposals are bold and audacious,” said Valliere. “He wants to raise taxes on individuals, on corporations, he wants to raise capital gains taxes, raise the estate tax and enact a new Social Security payroll tax. I’ve been doing this a long time. I think I’ve not seen many politicians in my career saying, ‘Vote for me. I’m going to raise your taxes.’ That’s not really seductive. I feel like in this last week, Trump will emphasize that a lot.”
Democrats have a “decent chance” to win at least a tie in the Senate, said Valliere, 50 seats to 50 seats held by Republicans, which would mean the tie-breaking vote, cast by the vice president, would depend on the outcome of the presidential election.
“I think that right now markets prefer a Biden government and one-party control over everything else, but there’s anxiety over higher taxes, the state of the defense sector and fossil fuels,” Valliere said, adding that financial services industry regulation and health-care policy would also be concerns should Biden emerge victorious. Yet, “if we do see Senate races break the way it’s starting to look, I do see the so-called blue wave.”
Valliere gave some predictions about what the early days of a Biden presidency or a Trump second term would look like.
If Biden wins, the day after his inauguration he’s likely to connect with world leaders to reset the U.S.’s foreign policy relationships.
“The second thing he’d do is instruct some top people to look at the regulations that Trump has dramatically reduced,” said Valliere. “We would look at emissions regulations, labor standards, and begin the process of undoing what Trump has done on regulations. At the same time, he would be on track to get a stimulus bill. I was sadly disappointed at not seeing anything done by Pelosi or [Labor Secretary Steven] Mnuchin. I think we probably won’t get a bill before the holidays, and it might be left to Joe Biden right after inauguration to start working on a big stimulus.”
Only after the stimulus is passed would Biden start working to increase taxes, said Valliere, but higher taxes would come eventually.
If Trump wins a second term, his first move might be to push for a large infrastructure spending bill, said Valliere.
“He also definitely wants to take his tax cuts and make them permanent, because the initial Trump tax cuts phase out in the middle of the term,” Valliere said. “He would also make efforts to finish the wall and continue to nominate conservative judges. He also, finally, might produce a health-care plan.”
Neither candidate is likely to make inroads toward reducing the budget deficit and managing the mushrooming national debt, said Valliere.
In the longer term, a Biden win might lead to a one-term presidency, said Valliere, after which the Democratic torch could be handed to vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris or another of the party’s rising stars.
“Looking at 2024, the Republicans would have a huge fight between the Trump faction and more traditional Republicans,” he said. [Vice President Mike] Pence, Nikki Haley and Tom Cotton of Arkansas are all likely to run. We’ll have maybe a dozen Republicans running in 2024.”