By the time the last brick is laid atop President Donald Trump’s Mexican wall, it’s a fair bet that someone more antagonistic toward the U.S. will hold power on its southern side.
Especially if that someone is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Which, thanks to Trump, looks increasingly likely.
The politician known locally as Amlo is the early frontrunner in Mexico’s 2018 presidential race. By itself, that may not mean much: Polls are unreliable, voting is a long way off, and Lopez Obrador is a two-time election loser in a country that stood aloof from Latin America’s populist turn and instead tethered its economy ever closer to the U.S..
But good luck selling that line to Mexicans right now. The momentum on Amlo’s side is palpable. Amid a spasm of national rage, voters are increasingly sympathetic to the cries of a radical outsider who promises to end a relationship of “ subordination” to the U.S. and rebuild the domestic economy. In other words, Trump -- with his brash pledges to rewrite Nafta and stick Mexico with the bill for building the wall -- has created the perfect climate for an anti-Trump south of the border.
“Winner of today’s U.S. Mexico dust-up: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador,” Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer tweeted last week. “Hope Trump is looking forward to working with him.”
‘Bad Hombres’
Even if it doesn’t come to that, the relationship is getting tense, as Mexico’s mainstream parties are pulled in Amlo’s direction. President Enrique Pena Nieto, who can’t run for re-election, canceled a visit with Trump scheduled for this week. And he’s begun to stress the importance of bolstering the local economy and raising wages -- even though keeping them low, to make Mexico attractive to American corporations, has effectively been government policy for decades.
Mexico’s peso slid about 17 percent after Trump’s election win, before recovering some of those losses since he took office. Still, almost every time the new president talks about Mexico, there’s something to make investors uneasy -- and Mexicans madder. This week, for example, he’s said to have suggested the U.S. might send troops to deal with “bad hombres down there,” a comment later downplayed as “ lighthearted.”
Popular feeling is running so strong that Mexican politicians have little choice but to fall in line. Online campaigns are calling on Mexicans to vacation at home (“Adios Disneylandia... Hola Mexico”). Local governments and activists demand boycotts of U.S. products. Many Mexicans have draped the national flag across their social media pages.
It just sounds less convincing coming from leaders who’ve made a career out of close U.S. ties. Pena Nieto’s approval rating is 12 percent. Jose Hernandez Solis, a 56-year-old street vendor at an Amlo rally in Mexico City on Monday, certainly wasn’t persuaded.