South of the border, corruption and violence -- especially the disappearance and killing of dozens of students two years ago, in which the police were implicated -- had spread disillusion with the political establishment well before Trump’s arrival.

Nafta ‘Straitjacket’

Lopez Obrador would add the country’s U.S.-friendly energy and agriculture policies to the catalog of woes. He says Mexico will consume its own gasoline and food on his watch, instead of importing it.

That would mean changes to Nafta, probably not the ones Trump has in mind -- assuming the trade pact survives at all. Its impact on Mexico is hotly debated in any case, and both sides can cite data that backs up their arguments.

Nafta has made no inroads into Mexico’s poverty rate. It stood at 53 percent in 2014, pretty much unchanged from two decades earlier when the trade accord went into effect, according to the World Bank. But the country has attracted billions of dollars of foreign investment in that period, turning it into the worlds seventh-largest automaker and creating thousands of jobs.

Lopez Obrador and his supporters take the glass-half-empty view.

“Nafta is a straitjacket that has kept 50 percent of our society in poverty” said Senator Manuel Bartlett of the Labor Party. “This is not about being antagonistic to the United States, it’s about being nationalist in defense of Mexico’s interests.”

Americans north of the wall may soon get to decide for themselves which description fits Amlo best. He’s planning a speaking tour of U.S. cities with large immigrant communities. First up, on Feb. 12, is Los Angeles.

This article was provided by Bloomberg News.

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