‘Boot-Licker’

“The president is a boot-licker,” Solis said. “Lopez Obrador has the guts to stand up to Trump and tell it like it is.” Straight talk, of course, is exactly the reason many U.S. voters gave for backing Trump.

At the rally, Lopez Obrador -- a 63-year-old with a shock of white hair who’s recently taken to sporting sideburns -- did what he usually does. He blamed “neoliberalism” for rampant inequality and violence, and vowed to protect local farmers from northern competition. “Everything depends on strengthening Mexico,” he said, “so we can confront aggression from abroad with strength.”

Such rhetoric almost won him the presidency in 2006. Lopez Obrador lost that election by less than 1 percentage point. His supporters shut down central Mexico City for weeks afterward, claiming the vote was rigged. The standoff irritated many Mexicans, and may have contributed to Amlo’s defeat by Pena Nieto in 2012, when the margin was wider.

An Amlo presidency would be a step into the unknown for Mexico. His Morena party is only two years old; by contrast, Pena Nieto’s PRI has roots in the Mexican Revolution of a century ago, and has been in power for all but 12 years since then. An early test of the 2018 contenders may come in June this year when several states hold local elections.

‘Chavez Wannabe’

There’s at least one Latin American precedent that’s encouraging for a left-leaning, nicknamed politician on the comeback trail. Luiz Inacio Da Silva finally won Brazil’s presidency for his Workers’ Party in 2002 after three failed attempts.

If Amlo can repeat Lula’s feat, it will spell trouble for Washington, according to Jose Cardenas, a former senior official at the State Department. The Brazilian toned down his populism once he took office. Lopez Obrador, according to Cardenas, bears a closer resemblance to another Latin leader who didn’t.

Amlo is a “ Hugo Chavez wannabe,” Cardenas wrote in National Review. He warned of likely disputes “on everything from border security, counterterrorism, and drug-war cooperation to deportations and restricting Central American migration.”

Every item on that list is a hot-button issue for Trump. But, as seen from Mexico, they’re primarily northern problems.