With no obvious triggers for changes in crypto project successes or enthusiasm for crypto trading on the horizon, the near-term outlook for Bitcoin seems to depend mostly on regulatory news, especially the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Beyond that, there is always the possibility of pullbacks or bumps in the road, especially if there are new crypto scandals.
Competition from stablecoins, traditional finance and crypto-native institutions is near zero, so any progress there can only be negative for Bitcoin. My guess is that the next Bitcoin doubling will be driven by the long-awaited crypto “killer app” that persuades millions of people to learn and use crypto, not just hold or trade it. The other possibility is problems in the traditional financial system—a crisis, increased repression, inflation fears, a credit crunch—will make Bitcoin relatively attractive.
We are close to the time when even very traditional investors, generally skeptical about crypto, should accept that it’s safer to have a small allocation to Bitcoin than to ignore it. Crypto might still all go to zero, but there’s enough potential upside that no exposure is an unbalanced portfolio.
Aaron Brown is a former head of financial market research at AQR Capital Management. He is also an active crypto investor, and has venture capital investments and advisory ties with crypto firms.