David Kelly

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Demographics, Debt, The Dollar And Apocalyptic Assets

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Here are answers to some of clients' most frequently asked questions.

The Housing Outlook In A Macro Game Of Inches

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The last two weeks have provided a vivid reminder of how sensitive markets can be to small changes in the macro-economic outlook.

The Normalization Of An Abnormal Job Market

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Despite alternating fears about overheating and recession, it appears that the U.S. labor market remains on a soft-landing path.

Commercial Real Estate: Macro Risk Or Investment Opportunity?

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Commercial real estate has broad characteristics that should be attractive to both institutional and individual investors.

The Right Time To Cut Rates

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The Fed cutting rates in June will depend on monthly inflation numbers and particularly CPI numbers in the near term.

The Pressures Of A Full Employment Economy

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The most likely path for the economy is one of a continued, very tight labor market.

Will Rising Federal Debt Force Rates Higher?

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Most likely, the deficit and debt will continue to worsen, gradually adding to the underlying level of real interest rates.

The Inflation Slide Looks Set To Continue

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Fed officials worry that they might still have to trigger a recession to get inflation all the way down to their 2% target.

Investing In A World Of Increasing Complexity

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Despite all the uncertainties, recent data suggest that the economy is looking stronger.

The Investment Implications Of A Rising Federal Deficit

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Higher real interest rates caused by the federal deficit could drag on the economy.

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