Forces well beyond their control will mostly determine the fate of the economy.
For the West, the single biggest economic impact would be via a partial or total cutoff of Russian energy.
Investment implications of the conflict depends on how far the Russian president is willing to escalate the crisis.
Financial markets sold off last week as investors worried about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Fundamental economic conditions do favor further increases in long-term interest rates.
Higher mortgage rates, courtesy of Fed tightening, should tame the growth in home prices.
Investors would be well advised to consider what a recession might mean for their portfolios.
Slowing down an economy that is growing too fast is a tricky business.
An Omicron pandemic wave would more likely slow rather than interrupt the currently rapid global economic recovery.
Investors should keep a balanced view with regard to inflation.
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