Silicon Valley Bank's unusual mix of assets and liabilities made it vulnerable to the Fed's recent aggressive tightening.
Corporations have been successful in growing their share of the pie by squeezing labor costs and boosting sales.
The risk for the economy overall is that monetary and fiscal tightening will spark a recession.
Despite recent strong numbers on GDP and jobs, there is a slowdown lurking.
We are likely to emerge from this year with a slow-growing, low-inflation economy in 2024.
Failure to increase the debt ceiling is the most immediate fiscal threat to the economy and markets.
Many of the problems that haunted the economy and markets in 2022 could be at least partially resolved in 2023.
In recent months, the collapse in housing has been dramatic.
Events over the next several weeks should lift some this fog and provide a clearer picture of the outlook.
The real question is not whether inflation is falling, but rather the slope of the slide.
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