There are two reasons to take this seriously. First, note that only three CEOs complained about the weather, while more than three times that number complained about the costs of labor, transport and materials, as well as supply-chain disruptions. There has been plenty of extreme weather in the last few months, and it’s alarming that the inflationary conditions are so much more serious for companies than floods, fires and hurricanes are. Second, only two mentioned currency. The dollar appreciated by about 2% during the third quarter, and it’s up by 5.5%, on a broad trade-weighted basis, since it hit a low early in January. A rising dollar makes earnings generated in overseas countries appear to be worth less in dollars. The many multinationals in the S&P routinely complain about this. So again, we need to take them seriously when they complain far more virulently about costs created by the pandemic.
Survival Tips
One important tip to start off: When going on a brief transatlantic trip, make sure you have access to Wi-Fi at all points on your itinerary. Also, make sure it's strong and secure enough to handle remotely accessing a Bloomberg Terminal. I didn't do this when I went to England this past weekend for my cousin's wedding, with the result that I missed sending two issues of Points of Return. Sorry.
Some other hints borne from my weekend jaunt back home: First, if you do want to try traveling, it's more pleasant than it used to be. Providing you use the Verifly app to store all your Covid information, traffic flows very swiftly through calm and half-empty terminals. And, if you happen to need to go to Britain, be prepared to be gouged for ridiculous sums of money for your tests, one of which must be taken within two days of arrival, and the other within three days of departure (which in my case meant that I took two tests at the same time, and had to pay twice).
Finally, after a wonderful occasion I wouldn’t have missed for the world, here are some suggestions from the happy couple’s playlist for the reception. For their opening dance, they played the “Muppet Show” theme song, and it was great. As this was on the South Coast in Sussex, of course there was something by Brighton’s own Fatboy Slim: “Praise You.” And there was plenty of Madness, who still cannot fail to soothe the most furrowed brow. Everyone enjoyed “Baggy Trousers,” the soundtrack to the school years of the bride, groom and many of us in attendance. And their final dance was to “It Must Be Love,” the most beautiful song in Madness’s repertoire. I had forgotten that the video was set at a funeral. It was just as appropriate for a wedding.
(And have a wonderful life together, guys, from your big cousin…)
John Authers is a senior editor for markets. Before Bloomberg, he spent 29 years with the Financial Times, where he was head of the Lex Column and chief markets commentator. He is the author of The Fearful Rise of Markets and other books.