Figure 4, Panel A, clearly shows the cyclicality in trend 10-year EPS growth. And Panel B shows that, for 10-year horizons, past EPS growth does not indicate future EPS growth. Indeed, we observe a moderate negative linkage between past and future EPS growth. Shiller’s research showed that CAPE ratios do not predict future growth rates; he found that some of the strongest mean reversion in the capital markets is between past and future earnings growth rates. We do not think this time will be different.